Assessing Terms of Trade Volatitlity in Argentina, 1810-2010. A Fourier Approach to Decycling

Madrid

Congreso; XXVI ASEPELT 2012 - Congreso Internacional de Economía Aplicada; 2012

Universidad Camilo José Cela

We study volatility as different from mere variability. A very long time span is adopted in the paper by covering Argentine data on GDP and External Terms of Trade using annual data. The rationale for the approach is to measure volatility as a measure of uncertainty. Different cycles are identified by means of a Fourier-type regression approach. A simple VAR excercise is carried out in order to ascertain whether causality runs from TOT volatility to GDP or the other way around.