AVRAMOVICH MARÍA CECILIA
Congresos y reuniones científicas
Título:
Dynamic Eff ects of Fiscal Shocks upon Diverse Macroeconomic Variables: A Structural VAR Analysis for Argentina
Lugar:
Santiago de Chile
Reunión:
Seminario; XVIII Seminario Regional de Poltica Fiscal, CEPAL; 2006
Resumen:
The paper studies the dynamic effects of fiscal policy shocks upon Argentine
macroeconomic variables such as the gross domestic product, the inflation rate and
the level of unemployment; a structural Vector Autoregression model is resorted to
in order to estimate the impulse response functions; the econometric analysis is
carried out for the period 1984-2005 (second quarter) and quarterly logarithmic
real variables are used for the VAR´s specification. Point estimation of impulse
response functions indicate both a relatively low statistical significance of fiscal
shocks upon macroeconomic variables and a short-lived impact of innovations while
at the same time cast doubts upon some traditionally accepted Keynesian
macroeconomic policy prescriptions.
macroeconomic variables such as the gross domestic product, the inflation rate and
the level of unemployment; a structural Vector Autoregression model is resorted to
in order to estimate the impulse response functions; the econometric analysis is
carried out for the period 1984-2005 (second quarter) and quarterly logarithmic
real variables are used for the VAR´s specification. Point estimation of impulse
response functions indicate both a relatively low statistical significance of fiscal
shocks upon macroeconomic variables and a short-lived impact of innovations while
at the same time cast doubts upon some traditionally accepted Keynesian
macroeconomic policy prescriptions.
