Poverty impacts of changes in the price of agricultural commodities : recent evidence for argentina (an ex-ante analysis)

Munich

Congreso; European Trade Study Group; 2014

LMU Munich and Ifo Institute

Argentina, like other land abundant country, benefited greatly from the increase in the prices of agricultural commodities. However, and in despite of the benefits at the macro level, with a large share of the population with low and medium-low incomes, the increase in agricultural commodity prices has the potential to hurt an important part of the population through a raise in the prices of the consumption basket of households, especially those that constitute the food-basket. The ex-ante evidence shows that this is expected to be the case. A less obvious channel, through changes in factor incomes would be more beneficial to the middle income households. Overall, losses range between 5.5 and 10% of initial household expenditure, with poorer households being the most negatively affected.