FLORENSA LUIS MARCELO
Capítulos de libros
Título:
Mercosur: trade creation or trade diversion? An application of the gravity model and Kalman filter
Libro:
Trade, Integration and Economic Development: The EU and Latin America
Editorial:
Springer-Verlag Wien
Referencias:
Lugar: Horn; Año: 2008; p. 221 - 248
Resumen:

 This paper is aimed at developing an econometric model which permits assessing the impact of MERCOSUR on Argentina?s international trade of manufactured products by specifying and estimating a gravity equation. In the first section, we identify the year from which the integration process begins to impact on the international trade of Argentina.Likewise, we determine the variables that best explain bilateral trade flows.In the second part, and as the main contribution of this study, we estimate the antimonde.After determining that the structures of the monde and the antimonde are statistically different, we compute the impact of MERCOSUR on the trade flows of Argentina?smanufactured products. The structure of the antimonde is dynamically estimated by using the Kalman filter. Results show that MERCOSUR has impacted on the bilateral trade flows of manufactured products specially since 1994. The structures of the monde and the antimonde are statistically different. Trade creation, internal and external, in imports and exports is the excluding effect.

This paper is aimed at developing an econometric model which permits assessing the impact of MERCOSUR on Argentina?s international trade of manufactured products by specifying and estimating a gravity equation. In the first section, we identify the year from which the integration process begins to impact on the international trade of Argentina.Likewise, we determine the variables that best explain bilateral trade flows.In the second part, and as the main contribution of this study, we estimate the antimonde.After determining that the structures of the monde and the antimonde are statistically different, we compute the impact of MERCOSUR on the trade flows of Argentina?smanufactured products. The structure of the antimonde is dynamically estimated by using the Kalman filter. Results show that MERCOSUR has impacted on the bilateral trade flows of manufactured products specially since 1994. The structures of the monde and the antimonde are statistically different. Trade creation, internal and external, in imports and exports is the excluding effect.