DESCALZI RICARDO LUIS
Congresos y reuniones científicas
Título:
Transitory and Permanent Terms of Trade Shocks and the Current Account in Latin American Countries
Lugar:
Montevideo y Punta del Este
Reunión:
Seminario; International Society for Comparative Economic Studies ISCES. Arnoldshain IX Seminar; 2009
Institución organizadora:
Universidad de la República (Uruguay)
Resumen:
We investigate if the terms of trade have an influence on the current account on Latin
American countries, and if the transitory or permanent duration of the shocks matter. Since
terms of trade volatility is a major source of instability in these economies, identification of the
presence and magnitude of such link is of policy relevance under the rule to smooth
transitory shocks, adjust to permanent shocks. The duration of terms of trade shocks and the
influence of the degree of persistence for 18 Latin American countries during 1976-2007 is
assessed using panel regression: the association of both transitory and permanent shocks
with the current account is found to be positive and statistically significant.
American countries, and if the transitory or permanent duration of the shocks matter. Since
terms of trade volatility is a major source of instability in these economies, identification of the
presence and magnitude of such link is of policy relevance under the rule to smooth
transitory shocks, adjust to permanent shocks. The duration of terms of trade shocks and the
influence of the degree of persistence for 18 Latin American countries during 1976-2007 is
assessed using panel regression: the association of both transitory and permanent shocks
with the current account is found to be positive and statistically significant.
