We study regional income mobility in Argentina using annual data for the 1980 – 1998 period. The Hodrick-Prescott filter allows us to disentangle the cyclical from the trend components in the series. Annual transition matrices are estimated but other time-spans are also taken into account: 2, 3, 6, 9, and 18 years. An ergodic vector is obtained which points to an important degree of polarisation in the long-run.
For the 1986 – 1998 period we obtain significantly different results because the long-run outcome now crucially depends on the initial conditions and, consequently, points to a much higher degree of polarisation.
Keywords: Markov Chains, Mobility, Transition, Ergodic Vector, Beta Convergence, Hodrick-Prescott Filter, Argentine Provinces.