SYNCHRONISM AND SIMILARITY OF BUSINESS CYCLES: ARGENTINA VIS-À-VIS BRAZIL

Jaén

Congreso; XXXIV Congreso Internacional de Economía aplicada ASEPELT 2021; 2023

ASEPELT-Universidad de Jaén

This paper explores whether their economic fluctuations of Argentina and Brazil followed a similar pattern according to their duration, intensity and timing during 1995.1-2018.4. Although some features coincide, Argentina?s business fluctuations are sharper and longer than those of Brazil. The highest coincidence is observed in GDP fluctuations (72% of the observations lie on the same side of the zero line). As to the rest of GDP components, the coincidences drop to nearly 50%. While Argentinian GDP, private consumption and imports have a significant correlation with their Brazilian counterparts, this association is quite modest.