MONCARZ PEDRO ESTEBAN
Congresos y reuniones científicas
Título:
The pass-through of agricultural commodity prices to domestic prices. A microsimulation of the welfare and poverty effects for urban Mexico
Autor/es:
BARONE, SERGIO; DESCALZI, RICARDO; MONCARZ, PEDRO E.
Lugar:
Córdoba y La Cumbre
Reunión:
Congreso; XIV Arnoldshain Seminar; 2016
Institución organizadora:
Facultad de Ciencias Económicas (UNC) e International Society for Comparative Economic Studies (ISCES)
Resumen:
For Mexico, with a large share of householdswith low and medium-low income, an increase in the prices of agriculturalcommodities has the potential to hurt a sizable part of the population throughthe rise in the cost of the consumption basket. Ex-ante this is the case. Aless obvious channel, through changes in labor income would be more beneficialto low-income households. Overall, and assuming a 50% increase in internationalcommodity prices, all households experience losses, around 5% of their initialexpenditure. In terms of poverty, the increase would be 8%, with that ofextreme-poverty even greater, 13%. The results show also that households in asituation of poverty would move in average further away from the thresholdslines. Approximately 2/3 of the long-run effect takes place in the first twoyears after the shock occurs. Surprisingly, the dynamics of poverty andextreme-poverty are very similar.
