CARO NORMA PATRICIA
Congresos y reuniones científicas
Título:
Brankruptcy prediction: mixed logistic model applied to argentine companies
Autor/es:
CARO, NORMA PATRICIA; DÍAZ, MARGARITA; GARCÍA, FERNANDO; PORPORATO, MARCELA
Reunión:
Congreso; International Association for Accounting Education and Research; 2014
Institución organizadora:
Administrative Sciences Association of Canada
Resumen:
Mixed logistics models are said to outperform other bankruptcy prediction models; the purpose of this study is to test that assertion with data from an emerging economy. This paper develops and applies a mixed logistic method to predict financial distress risk of companies operating in an emerging economy. Financial statement data of firms listed in the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange during 1993-2000 are used to replicate Jones and Hensher (2004) model and adapt it to Argentina. Results show that, similarly to previous studies, profitability, assets turnover, debt leverage and cash flow from operations allow modeling the probability of financial distress in an emerging economy. The most notable contribution of the new estimation method is its excellent performance when applied to a period of economic stability of an emerging economy since all companies are properly assigned to group membership, making type I and II errors equal to zero.