Urban travel demand estimation and forecasting: a mixed logit application to the Villa Carlos Paz city (Córdoba, Argentina)

Cambridge

Conferencia; 2020-2021 MIT SCALE Latin America Conference; 2021

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Stated choice models have been extensively applied in urban transport planning for estimating demand and the subjective values of levels of services and policy instruments.The paper presents discrete choice models estimated based on a stated choice survey applied to commuters in Villa Carlos Paz city (Argentina), contributing to widen the few existent empirical results in Argentina. We have estimated mixed multinomial logit models with random parameters and panel data for the commuting urban transport mode choice.The paper reports the estimation results, market share forecasts for the available transport modes, the subjective valuation of travel time savings, waiting time savings and walking distance savings in origin and destination for accessing urban bus services. Also, we have estimated the demand elasticitiesderived from the application of policies associated to changes in level of services variables: bus travel time, car parking cost, bus waiting time and bus travel cost.